Oscars 2023: Best Picture–Final Predictions (My Life as Oscar Guru since 1986)

Best Picture: Frontrunners (in alphabetical order)


©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
The nominations for the 95th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 24.
The Oscar telecast is set for Sunday, March 12, with ABC Jimmy Kimmel as host.
  • All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
    Daniel Marc Dreifuss, Malte Grunert
  • “Avatar: The Way of Water” (Disney-Fox) James Cameron
  • The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh
  • “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney)
  • Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
    Daniel Kwan, Mike Larocca, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang
  • The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    Spielberg, Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger
  • Tár” (Focus Features)
    Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan
  • Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison
  • Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
    Philippe Bober, Erik Hemmendorff
  • The Whale” (A24); Jeremy Dawson, Darren Aronofsky, Ari Handel
  • Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand


This year represents a mix of big-budget studio movies and smaller indie fare.

One of the frontrunners is a German speaking film, All Quiet in the Western Front.  There have been a dozen or so foreign language films nominated for the top award, such as the Italian Love is Beautiful or the French Amour, or the Korean Parasite.  But no German language feature has been nominated for Best Picture–yet.

Some of the frontrunners are sequels, such as Top Gun: Maverick, or Avatar: The Way of Water.

Only one film directed by a woman, Women Talking, may make it into the top field–so much for progress.

For the first time, three of the top films center on or contain an LGBTQ character, Everything Everywhere All at Once (about a lesbian daughter); Tár about a lesbian composer/conductor; and The Whale, about an obese gay father.