When the Television Academy announces this year’s Emmy Awards nominations on Wednesday, they’ll downplay — but still reference — show’s September 18 airdate. Nonetheless, almost everyone involved inside both the network and org know that it’s extremely unlikely that date will hold much longer.

According to insiders, the Academy and Fox are waiting to see for sure if SAG-AFTRA goes on strike this week, joining the WGA in essentially putting all major Hollywood events to a halt. After that, a decision is expected to be finalized by the end of July on when and how to hold this year’s Emmys.

It’s ultimately Fox’s call, however, as they’re this year’s broadcast partner as part of the four-network “wheel deal.”

Fox seems pretty committed to a January date, arguing that its November calendar is already packed with NFL football and other events.

A January date would likely put it on Jan. 21, 2024, however, as the Golden Globes is scheduled for January 7 and the Critics Choice Awards are on January 14.

There’s precedence in moving the Emmys to November: In 2001, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed the Emmy date, initial military action in Afghanistan pushed the telecast again, into November. At that point, a subdued Emmy telecast took place in a smaller venue (the now-demolished Schubert Theatre in Century City).

On the other hand, it would give Fox a chance to promote its midseason shows, and the Emmys might benefit from the promo attention it would get during those aforementioned NFL playoff games. It would also return the Emmys back to where it all began: The first three Emmy ceremonies (in 1949, 1950 and 1951) all took place in January. The kudocast then started creeping into spring, and actually didn’t become a permanent September event until 1977.

Meanwhile, as the Primetime Emmys mull a move, don’t forget that the Daytime Emmys also has to figure out when and where it will air on CBS, having been postponed from its original June date.

As an Primetime Emmy move currently seems likely, the TV Academy will also have to determine whether or not to shift the Phase 2 voting window, scheduled for Aug. 17-28, to later. In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Phase 2 voting dates were pushed back, with Phase 1 voting moved to July; this time, it’s unclear how or when campaigning could resume — or if it will have to take place without talent participation.

Insiders expect the Academy to keep the Phase 2 calendar as is, however, rather than risk complaints that a move might give an unfair advantage to certain contenders over others. There’s also the argument, made by some, that Phase 2 campaigning has never been as robust as Phase 1 (when FYC events and pop-up installations are common), and could continue without talent participation.

Should that be the case, and voting continues in August as planned, the TV Academy would then simply sit on the results until the Emmy telecast eventually takes place. More, obviously, to come as the news moves fast and pivots are inevitable during these unprecedented times.