Oscars 2023: Best Picture–Predictions
It’s been 36 years since my book on the Oscar Awards was first published, under the title And The Winner Is: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards.
At the time, few publishers believed that there was a market for a serious, comprehensive book about the Oscars, despite the fact that it had been–and still is–the most prestigious and coveted prize in the international film industry.
Thus, it is with great gratitude to my first agent, the late and great Mitch Douglas of ICM, that I have continued to study and to write thoroughly about the Oscars (even though they might be in decline in terms of the telecast’s popularity and shifting nature of the medium itself).
Over the past four decades, we have revised and updated the book at least half a dozen times, and published it under various titles, such as Oscar Fever and All About Oscar.
I am happy to say that the book is still in print, in both hardcover and paperback editions.
As an Oscar guru, I usually begin running my Oscar predictions as soon as the trio of fall festivals, Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, are over. NYFF just began last night.
Frontrunners: 12 films
Avatar: The Way of Water, 20th Century, James Cameron–Unseen
Banshees of Inisherin, The, Searchlight, Martin McDonagh (Venice Fest)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Marvel Studios, Kevin Feige–Unseen
Elvis, Warner Bros., Baz Luhrmann (Cannes Fest)
Empire of Light, Searchlight Pictures, Sam Mendes
Everything Everywhere All at Once, A24, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Fabelmans, The, Universal Pictures, Spielbergm (Toronto Fest)
She Said, Universal Pictures–Unseen (NYFF)
TÁR, Focus Features, Todd Field (Venice)
Top Gun: Maverick, Paramount Pictures, Joseph Kosinski (Cannes)
Woman King, The, Sony Pictures, Gina Prince-Bythewood (Tor0nt0)
Women Talking, MGM/United Artists, Sarah Polley (Telluride Fest)
Strong Contenders:
A Man Called Otto, Sony Pictures, Marc Forster–Unseen
Armageddon Time, Focus Features, James Gray (Cannes Fest)
Babylon, Paramount Pictures, Damien Chazelle–Unseen
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Netflix, Rian Johnson
Son, The, Sony Classics, Florian Zeller (Venice)
White Noise, Netflix, Noah Baumbach (Venice, NYFF)
Also in the Run:
Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), Iñárritu (Venice, Telluride)
Bones and All, MGM/United Artists, Luca Guadagnino (Venice)
Living, Sony Classics, Oliver Hermanus
Till, Orion/United Artists, Chinonye Chukwu
Triangle of Sadness, Neon, Ruben Ostlund (Cannes Fest, top winner)
Whale, The, A24, Darren Aronofsky (Venice)
Film Festivals Premieres
While making the above lists, I can’t help but notice that more than half of the movies had premiered at the Cannes, Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Fests).
