Oscars 2023: Best Actress Race (Levy Road to Gold)

It’s been 36 years since my book on the Oscar Awards was first published, under the title And The Winner Is: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards.

At the time, few publishers believed that there was a market for a serious, comprehensive book about the Oscars, despite the fact that it had been the most prestigious and coveted prize in the international film industry.

Thus, it is with great gratitude to my first agent, the late and great Mitch Douglas of ICM, that I have continued to study and to write thoroughly about the Oscars (even though they might be in decline in terms of the telecast’s popularity).

Since then, we have revised and updated the book at least half a dozen times, under various titles, such as Oscar Fever and All About Oscar.

I am happy to say that the book is still in print, in both hardcover and paperback editions.

As an Oscar guru, I usually begin running my Oscar predictions as soon as the trio of fall festivals, Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, are over.

BEST ACTRESS:

Frontrunners:

Cate Blanchett, TÁR (two-time Oscar winner)

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (Oscar winner)

Viola Davis, The Woman King (Oscar winner)

Ana de Armas, Blonde (new face)

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (four-time nominee)

Strong Contenders:

Zoe Kazan, She Said (new face)

Rooney Mara, Women Talking (multiple nominee)

Carey Mulligan, She Said (multiple nominee)

Florence Pugh, The Wonder (nominee)

Margot Robbie, Babylon (nominee)

Taylor Russell, Bones and All (new face)

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Oscar winner)

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (new face)

Also in the Run:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (nominee)

Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (Oscar winner)

Vicky Krieps, Corsage (new face)

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (Oscar winner)

Lea Seydoux, One Fine Morning (new face)

Analysis:

If my predictions are accurate, of the 5 top contenders, only one, Ana de Armas, would be a new face; the rest are either Oscar winners or nominees.

Ditto for the category of strong contenders: Of the 8 women on my list, only 3 are first-time nominees.