Oscar 2019: Correlation Between Directors Guild Award and Best Director Oscar

The Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award is one of the top indicators of Oscar glory.

All but seven of the DGA winners since 1948 have gone on to take the best director Oscar — including Guillermo del Toro last year for “The Shape of Water.”

The last divergence occurred in 2013, when Ben Affleck won the DGA Award for “Argo,” even though he did not receive a Best Director Oscar nomination.

About 80% of DGA nominees have gone on to be in the running for an Academy Award in recent years. Cuaron, Lee, and McKay have been nominated for an Oscar this year, along with Yorgos Lanthimos for “The Favourite” and Pawel Pawlikowski for “Cold War.”

Mexico-born directors have won four of the last five directing Oscars, starting with Cuaron in 2013, followed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for “Birdman” and “The Revenant,” and del Toro for “The Shape of Water” last year. Damien Chazelle won the Oscar in 2017 for “La La Land.”

McKay was still a big winner, taking home the drama series award for HBO’s “Succession.” Ben Stiller nabbed the movies for television and limited series prize for Showtime’s “Escape at Dannemora.”

“This is a dream come true,” Stiller said. “I’ve wanted to be a director since I was 8 years old.”

Tim Wardle’s “Three Identical Strangers” won the documentary award over “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?,” “RBG,” “Free Solo,” and “Hale County This Morning, This Evening.”

“Three Identical Strangers” did not receive an Oscar nomination. Wardle gave a shout-out to Lee for “Do the Right Thing,” saying that it had changed his life.

In an upset, Bo Burnham won the first-time directing award for “Eighth Grade,” topping Cooper, who had been widely expected to win, Carlos Lopez Estrada for “Blindspotting,” Matthew Heineman for “A Private War,” and Boots Riley for “Sorry to Bother You.” The comedy-drama starred Elsie Fisher as an insecure eighth-grader in the final week of school.

“I didn’t think this was mathematically possible,” a stunned Burnham said in his acceptance.

Bill Hader, Barry

Bill Hader won the comedy series award for the first episode of HBO’s “Barry.” it topped two episodes of “Atlanta” and two for last year’s winner, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” Hader won the Emmy for actor in a comedy series in September.