Oscars 2025: Analysis of Major Categories

The final round of Oscars voting will run 9 a.m. PT on Feb. 11 through 5 p.m. PT on Feb. 18. A lot can still happen.

My Oscar Book:

I’m Still Here

There was also strong showings for Sony Classics’ Portuguese-language I’m Still Here (nominated for best picture, best actress for Fernanda Torres and best international feature for Brazil).

Also for Sideshow/Janus’ dialogue-free Flow (nominated for best animated feature and best international feature).

In the best documentary feature category, four of the five nominees are entirely in a language other than English and the fifth is partially.

(It’s certainly possible that this year’s nominations were impacted, to a degree, by the wildfire crisis that has been plaguing the Los Angeles area for weeks. Sixty percent of Academy members are based in SoCal, and many of them have had more pressing concerns on their mind than Oscar voting.)

Beyond best picture, there are plenty of other competitive categories this year. Best director, for the first time in 27 years, pits against each other 5 artists who have never previously been nominated for that award, including vetd Audiard, Baker and Mangold, as well as relative newbies Brady Corbet and Coralie Fargeat. (It’s the same lineup as the DGA Award’s, apart from Fargeat bouncing Berge.

Corbet, who won some critics awards, has the most compelling chances for winning.  The director, who’s only 36, has made his epic film for less than $10 million, but it has become controversial due to recent AI charges.

Best actor is also looking like a dead heat.
The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody 22 years ago became and remains the category’s youngest-ever winner. He was 29 when he won for The Pianist, and then largely disappeared, but he is now enjoying a major comeback.
A Complete Unknown’s Timothée Chalamet, who will be the host and music guest on Saturday Night Live this weekend, is arguably the last true movie star, and he would beat Brody’s record by a few days.
He would also join Cate Blanchett in an elite club of actors who won an Oscar for playing an Oscar winner; she won Supporting Actress in 2004 for playing Katharine Hepburn in Scorsese’s The Aviator.
Conclave’s Ralph Fiennes, 62, is among the most revered living actors who have never won an Oscar.
Sing Sing’s Colman Domingo — a nominee last year for Rustin who today became first person to earn best actor Oscar noms in back-to-back years since Denzel Washington did so for Fences in 2017 and Roman J. Israel, Esq. in 2018.
The fifth slot went to Sebastian Stan for his portrayal of Donald Trump in The Apprentice.
As a result, Daniel Craig came up short for some of his finest work, in Queer.

Best Actress

No category has been more competitive this year than best actress.

Place could not be found for even Marianne Jean-Baptiste, a past Oscar nominee who swept the major critics awards for her searing turn in Hard Truths, or Angelina Jolie, a past Oscar winner and the A-lister of A-listers, who seemed an early front-runner for the biopic Maria.

Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo is just an Oscar shy of an EGOT. And I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres, who won the best drama actress Golden Globe, has a loyal following. But I suspect that the showy performance and remarkable personal narrative of The Substance’s Demi Moore will matter for Oscar voters.
Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress Categories

The supporting acting categories look more settled and more easily redictable.

There is A Complete Unknown’s Edward Norton or Anora’s Yura Borisov, but A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin, already a critics winner and a master at endearing acceptance speeches, is still the supporting actor to beat, even if his film came up short for a best picture nom.

Though Wicked’s Ariana Grande makes an impression in her first major film role and veteran Isabella Rossellini is Hollywood royalty with limited screen time in ConclaveEmilia Pérez’s Zoe Saldaña is the supporting actress front-runner.

Best international feature

For the first time ever, this category includes multiple films that were also nominated for best picture, Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here, and one of them will surely prevail.

Best documentary feature

This category is populated with 5 films that most Oscar voters outside of the Academy’s docu branch haven’t seen and won’t be especially enthused to check out.

The winner may be one of the fine films that also makes a social statement about the conflict in the Middle East (No Other Land) or in Ukraine (Porcelain War).

Best Animation

This category includes two films that also received nominatins outside of the category, Flow and The Wild Robot, which is certainly encouraging for their prospects, but they’re also up against 2024’s highest-grossing film, Disney’s Inside Out 2, which cannot be counted out.

Best original score includes two out-and-out musicals, Emilia Pérez and Wicked; two dramas with memorably booming compositions, The Brutalist and Conclave (for the latter, Volker Bertelmann could win the category for the second time in three years); plus The Wild Robot (though only one animated film has won this award this century). Any one of them could prevail.
Best original song includes two Emilia Pérez, “El Mal” and “Mi Camino,” which could result in them canceling out each other and neither winning, although that did not happen in either of the two most recent instances in which a single film had multiple song noms, La La Land and Barbie.
If they do split, the beneficiary could be two-time past winner Elton John (and Brandi Carlile) for “Never Too Late” from the Disney doc Elton John: Never Too Late.
Diane Warren is the most nominated songwriter who has never won. This year she is up for her 16th nomination, “The Journey” from Netflix’s The Six Triple Eight.

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