The best film winner of the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) has typically had a strong correlation with the best picture Oscar prize.
My Oscar Book:
Since the expansion to 10 nominees in 2009, only Carol (2015) and First Cow (2020), both quintessentially indies, have missed out on a best picture nomination.
First Cow (overestimated in my view) was the first film in the organization’s long history (founded in 1935) to fail garnering a single Oscar nom.
Carol earned acting (Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara) and other nominations, but not Best Picture or Best Director.
Since 1935, NYFCC and the Academy Awards have matched about 40 percent the time.
Past Lives went on to win best film from the National Society of Film Critics (NSFC) and to be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.