Oscar 2018: Best Original Screenplay–Predictions


This is the 32nd year that I have been doing Oscar predictions, ever since my book, All About Oscar: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards, was first published, in 1987.

Featuring on its cover Halle Berry, the first black woman to ever win the Best Actress Oscar, in 2001, the book (updated every sic year) is now in its 11th edition.

I have divided the Best Original Screenplay category into two subgroups: frontrunners and contenders, each arranged alphabetically.

Once again, indie movies (some by newcomers) rule the day.


The Big Sick (Lionsgate/Amazon)

Get Out (Universal)

Lady Bird (A24)

The Post (Fox)

The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)



Darkest Hour (Focus Features)

Dunkirk (Warner)

Florida Project (A24)

Mudbound (Netflix)

Phantom Thread (Focus Features)