Oscar: Predictors for Oscar Nominations–SAG Vs. Golden Globes

The Hollywood Reporter Awards Analyst points out:

Since 2001, 18 of the 260 acting Oscar nominees — or 7 percent — received neither a SAG nor a Globe nomination en route to the big show.

1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor
13. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011) for best actor
14. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2011) for best supporting actor
15. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour, 2012) for best actress
16. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2012) for best actress
17. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook, 2012) for best supporting actress
18. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) for best supporting actor

Many of these performances came in late-year releases (i.e. Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street), which probably prevented some SAG and Globes voters from seeing them. Others were smallish performances in big contenders (i.e. Harden inMystic River, Alda in The Aviator and Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook) and may have picked up additional steam since the SAG and Globe noms were announced. And still others were the beneficiaries of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that finally resonated with voters (i.e. Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem inBiutiful and Riva in Amour).

Only one person has ever won an Oscar following SAG and Globe snubs: Marcia Gay Harden, Supporting Actress, for Pollock.

Meanwhile, during that same period, 24 performances that received both SAG and Globe noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.

1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress
16. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar, 2011) for best actor
17. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin, 2011) for best actress
18. John Hawkes (The Sessions, 2012) for best actor
19. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone, 2012) for best actress
20. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, 2012) for best actress
21. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) for best supporting actress
22. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, 2013) for best actor
23. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks, 2013) for best actress
24. Daniel Bruhl (Rush, 2013) for best supporting actor

*HFPA nominated for lead; SAG nominated for supporting

Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen (i.e. Christensen inLife as a House, Blanchett in Bandits and Hawkes in The Sessions) and wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely. Others came from movie stars who had rarely done “serious movies” but were trying to be seen in a new light (i.e. Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart and Kunis in Black Swan). And still others were simply in jam-packed categories in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (i.e.Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed and Hanks in Captain Phillips).

The following 19 performances received both SAG and Globe noms:

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) for best actor
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) for best actor
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) for best actor
Michael Keaton (Birdman) for best actor — Gotham winner and NBR co-winner
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) for best actor

Jennifer Aniston (Cake) for best actress
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) for best actress
Julianne Moore (Still Alice) for best actress — Gotham and NBR winner
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) for best actress
Reese Witherspoon (Wild) for best actress

Robert Duvall (The Judge) for best supporting actor
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) for best supporting actor
Edward Norton (Birdman) for best supporting actor — NBR winner
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) for best supporting actor
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) for best supporting actor — NYFCC and LAFCA winner

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) for best supporting actress — NYFCC and LAFCA* winner
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) for best supporting actress
Emma Stone (Birdman) for best supporting actress
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) for best supporting actress

The following performances received either a SAG or Globe nom:

Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) for best actor
Bill Murray (St. Vincent) for best actor
David Oyelowo (Selma) for best actor
Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice) for best actor
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes) for best actor

Amy Adams (Big Eyes) for best actress
Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) for best actress
Helen Mirren (The Hundred-Foot Journey) for best actress
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars) for best actress — Cannes winner
Quvenzhane Wallis (Annie) for best actress

Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) for best supporting actress — NBR winner
Naomi Watts (St. Vincent) for best supporting actress

And the following performances — all plausible contenders — received neither a SAG nor Globe nom:

Ben Affleck (Gone Girl) for best actor
Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up) for best actor
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) for best actor
Kevin Costner (Black or White) for best actor
Robert Downey, Jr. (The Judge) for best actor
Tom Hardy (Locke) for best actor — LAFCA winner
Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) for best actor — NBR co-winner
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar) for best actor
Jack O’Connell (Unbroken) for best actor
Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) for best actor — Cannes and NYFCC winner
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher) for best actor
Miles Teller (Whiplash) for best actor

Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby) for best actress
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) for best actress — NYFCC winner
Greta Gerwig (The Humbling) for best actress
Anne Hathaway (Interstellar) for best actress
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle or Beyond the Lights) for best actress
Jenny Slate (Obvious Child) for best actress
Hilary Swank (The Homesman) for best actress
Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars) for best actress

Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) for best supporting actor
Charlie Cox (The Theory of Everything) for best supporting actor
Logan Lerman (Fury) for best supporting actor
Miyavi (Unbroken) for best supporting actor
Alfred Molina (Love Is Strange) for best supporting actor
Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes) for best supporting actor
Tom Wilkinson (Selma) for best supporting actor

Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) for best supporting actress
Laura Dern (Wild) for best supporting actress
Carmen Ejogo (Selma) for best supporting actress
Sienna Miller (American Sniper) for best supporting actress
Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher) for best supporting actress
Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) for best supporting actress
Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) for best supporting actress

On the basis of the last 13 years of history, the odds are that at least one of the 19 performances that received a SAG and Globe nom will not receive an Oscar nom and that at least one of the many performances that received neither a SAG nor a Globe nom will.

So which of the 19 SAG-Globe nominees is most in peril? The five supporting actors and four supporting actresses seem pretty locked to me. I’d say the same about the lead actresses, except for the fact that Aniston fits two of the three criteria of being “endangered”: she’s up for a little seen movie (without a major distributor) and she’s trying to be seen in a different light (dramatic rather than comedic); the good news for her is that she doesn’t face much competition and she seems willing to campaign hard. The most competitive category this year is lead actor, and my sense is that Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne are in. That leaves Carell and Gyllenhaal. The fact that Gyllenhaal has done as well as he has, despite being in a small indie, leads me to believe that he’s probably good to go; the fact that Carell is trying to be seen in a totally new light and also competing with a costar suggests to me that he may be vulnerable.

Which of the SAG-Globe snubees could emerge to replace Aniston or one of the guys? Two-time Oscar winner Swank and young fan favorite Woodley seem like the biggest threats to the former; both have shown a willingness to campaign hard on behalf of their films, each of which have passionate followings. As for the latter, I’d look out for Cooper or O’Connell, whose films people are still catching up to; O’Connell is more available to campaign, since Cooper is currently acting on Broadway — but my gut feeling is that the likeliest replacement is actually Globe nominee/SAG snubee Oyelowo for his portrayal of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.. Also, I think that Dern has as good a chance as Chastain and a much better chance than Watts at claiming the fifth supporting actress slot.