Oscar 2013: What the SAG Nominations Mean?

Fox Searchlight’s “12 Years a Slave” has gained momentum in the awards race with its four nominations for SAG Awards.

“August: Osage County,” “Dallas Buyers Club” and “Lee Daniels’ The Butler” boosted their Oscar prospects with three nominations a film, including the key ensemble awards.

“Osage” and “Butler,” which haven’t been prominent so far in awards voting, benefited the most from the nods.

Not to forget: SAG is a more reliable Oscar predictor than most other guilds.

This year marks the 20th annual awards, with Rita Moreno receiving the 50th Life Achievement Award.

Last year, four of the five ensemble nominees earned best-pic nominations.

As for wins, the ensemble prize predicted the eventual Oscar winner in five of the past eight years.

The five films contending for ensemble this year are “12 Years a Slave,” “American Hustle,” “August: Osage County,” Focus Features’ “Dallas Buyers Club” and “Lee Daniels’ The Butler.”

After being considered one of the two front-runners for Oscar, “12 Years” saw a lot of rivals take home top prizes in last week’s critics awards. But arguably the biggest gainer from the announcement: The Weinstein Co., with seven noms. Both “The Butler” (in photo pm right) and “Osage County” (photo, left) scored key noms, with Forest Whitaker and Oprah Winfrey for the former, Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts for the latter, aside from both films’ ensemble noms. And the other big gainers are Daniel Bruhl for Universal’s “Rush” and James Gandolfini for Searchlight’s “Enough Said” in the supporting category.

Snubbed by SAG:

Robert Redford for Lionsgate/Roadside’s “All is Lost,” not nominated after winning the N.Y. Film Critics prize last week.

Nonetheless, Redford may will receive Best Actor Oscar nomination from his peers at the Academy’s Actors Branch.

“The Wolf of Wall Street,” absent in the nominations, though its late opening may have dented its chances.

Also overlooked is Spike Jonze’s “Her.”

But those films shouldn’t give up hope.  The awards race is beginning to take shape, but the key word is “beginning.” SAG Awards are sometimes an Oscar bellwether, but in a year as crowded and eclectic as this one, anything can happen.

“Dallas Buyers Club” and “American Hustle” both earned key kudos in the Indie Spirit nominations and N.Y. Critics prizes, respectively.

Sony’s “American Hustle” scored two noms, for ensemble and supporting actress Jennifer Lawrence.

The TV side gets less attention, since these guild honors land in the middle of “awards season,” which is a generic term for Oscar season. Many of these contenders have been nominated by SAG before, and most are previous Emmy nominees and/or winners.

Biggest surprise among the smallscreen noms was the shutout of “Mad Men” for the first time in the show’s history — even for Jon Hamm, which seems inexplicable. “Homeland’s” Damian Lewis also failed to land an individual nom; Claire Danes, the reigning champ in the female drama series actress category, is back again.

HBO paced the TV noms, with 13. The cabler’s “Veep” scored its first nom in the ensemble category. And while much attention this year was devoted to the number of feature films based on real events, same is true in the TV movie/miniseries category: Eight of the 10 leads are playing real people, including all five of the lead actor contenders.

The film-stunt nomination for “Fast and Furious 6″ gains added poignancy due to the recent death of Paul Walker. And the “All is Lost” nom in that category is interesting, since Robert Redford did some of his own work. Other stunt contenders include, to no surprise, “Lone Survivor,” “Rush” and “The Wolverine.”

Until 2005, there was surprisingly little correlation between a SAG win and Oscar: only four identical winners in 10 years. The turning point was when Lionsgate sent out screeners of the 2005 “Crash” to all 100,000 SAG voting members. Since the film had opened eight months earlier, piracy wasn’t a concern to the studio, and a key to the film’s win was the voters’ access via screeners. Previously, studios were eager to set up screenings, but wary of giving so many people access to one of their hot titles.

Ever since “Crash,” superstitious/scrupulous awards strategists traced a direct connection between the two honors, a theory fueled by the fact that the actors branch accounts for 20% of Academy voters.

Since then, the other SAG Ensemble winners that went on to Oscar were “No Country for Old Men” (2007), “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “The King’s Speech” (2010) and “Argo” (2012).

The variations were the SAG wins for “Little Miss Sunshine,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “The Help,” while the respective Oscar winners were “The Departed” (2006), “The Hurt Locker” (2009) and “The Artist” (2011).

But win or not, a nomination for ensemble is a good sign. For the past two years, four of the five films in contention for SAG’s ensemble kudos also went on to Oscar noms. Last year, the nominees included “Argo,” “Les Miserables,” “Lincoln” and “Silver Linings Playbook,” but Oscar didn’t include SAG’s fifth choice, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.”

Two years ago, the SAG ensemble roster consisted of “The Artist,” The Descendants,” “The Help” and “Midnight in Paris,” all of which were Oscar nommed; but SAG choice “Bridesmaids” was left at the altar in Oscar voting.

“Help” won the SAG award, but “Artist” took home Oscar.

And giving hope to actors who weren’t included today: Oscar’s supporting actor winner last year, Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained,” didn’t even receive a nom from SAG. (Tommy Lee Jones was the SAG winner.) Conversely, three of the four top acting prizes in SAG were repeated with Oscar (Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway).

Thursday’s Golden Globe nominations may also prove illuminating, but so far, the glories have been widespread from AFI Awards, Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics, National Board of Review and nominations for the Independent Spirit Awards.

Actors always say they treasure the SAG Awards, because they are handed out by their peers in SAG-AFTRA, people who appreciate how hard it is to be an actor. But for studio beancounters and awards strategists, these are valued for two reasons: Promotional value, since the awards are telecast (this year, on TNT and TBS), and as a clue to a film’s popularity, especially when it comes to Oscar.

Nominations are made by a SAG nominating committee, or nom-com as it’s called, that consists of about 2,000 members, randomly chosen across the country.  Final voting is by all members.

The awards will be handed out January 18 at the Shrine Auditorium.  That’s two days after the January 16 convergence of Oscar nominations, BFCA Critics Choice Awards and Sundance opening all on the same day.

January 19 sees the Producers Guild Awards.

xosotin chelseathông tin chuyển nhượngcâu lạc bộ bóng đá arsenalbóng đá atalantabundesligacầu thủ haalandUEFAevertonxosokeonhacaiketquabongdalichthidau7m.newskqbdtysokeobongdabongdalufutebol ao vivofutemaxmulticanaisonbetbsport.fitonbet88.oooi9bet.bizhi88.ooookvip.atf8bet.atfb88.cashvn88.cashshbet.atbóng đá world cupbóng đá inter milantin juventusbenzemala ligaclb leicester cityMUman citymessi lionelsalahnapolineymarpsgronaldoserie atottenhamvalenciaAS ROMALeverkusenac milanmbappenapolinewcastleaston villaliverpoolfa cupreal madridpremier leagueAjaxbao bong da247EPLbarcelonabournemouthaff cupasean footballbên lề sân cỏbáo bóng đá mớibóng đá cúp thế giớitin bóng đá ViệtUEFAbáo bóng đá việt namHuyền thoại bóng đágiải ngoại hạng anhSeagametap chi bong da the gioitin bong da lutrận đấu hôm nayviệt nam bóng đátin nong bong daBóng đá nữthể thao 7m24h bóng đábóng đá hôm naythe thao ngoai hang anhtin nhanh bóng đáphòng thay đồ bóng đábóng đá phủikèo nhà cái onbetbóng đá lu 2thông tin phòng thay đồthe thao vuaapp đánh lô đềdudoanxosoxổ số giải đặc biệthôm nay xổ sốkèo đẹp hôm nayketquaxosokq xskqxsmnsoi cầu ba miềnsoi cau thong kesxkt hôm naythế giới xổ sốxổ số 24hxo.soxoso3mienxo so ba mienxoso dac bietxosodientoanxổ số dự đoánvé số chiều xổxoso ket quaxosokienthietxoso kq hôm nayxoso ktxổ số megaxổ số mới nhất hôm nayxoso truc tiepxoso ViệtSX3MIENxs dự đoánxs mien bac hom nayxs miên namxsmientrungxsmn thu 7con số may mắn hôm nayKQXS 3 miền Bắc Trung Nam Nhanhdự đoán xổ số 3 miềndò vé sốdu doan xo so hom nayket qua xo xoket qua xo so.vntrúng thưởng xo sokq xoso trực tiếpket qua xskqxs 247số miền nams0x0 mienbacxosobamien hôm naysố đẹp hôm naysố đẹp trực tuyếnnuôi số đẹpxo so hom quaxoso ketquaxstruc tiep hom nayxổ số kiến thiết trực tiếpxổ số kq hôm nayso xo kq trực tuyenkết quả xổ số miền bắc trực tiếpxo so miền namxổ số miền nam trực tiếptrực tiếp xổ số hôm nayket wa xsKQ XOSOxoso onlinexo so truc tiep hom nayxsttso mien bac trong ngàyKQXS3Msố so mien bacdu doan xo so onlinedu doan cau loxổ số kenokqxs vnKQXOSOKQXS hôm naytrực tiếp kết quả xổ số ba miềncap lo dep nhat hom naysoi cầu chuẩn hôm nayso ket qua xo soXem kết quả xổ số nhanh nhấtSX3MIENXSMB chủ nhậtKQXSMNkết quả mở giải trực tuyếnGiờ vàng chốt số OnlineĐánh Đề Con Gìdò số miền namdò vé số hôm nayso mo so debach thủ lô đẹp nhất hôm naycầu đề hôm naykết quả xổ số kiến thiết toàn quốccau dep 88xsmb rong bach kimket qua xs 2023dự đoán xổ số hàng ngàyBạch thủ đề miền BắcSoi Cầu MB thần tàisoi cau vip 247soi cầu tốtsoi cầu miễn phísoi cau mb vipxsmb hom nayxs vietlottxsmn hôm naycầu lô đẹpthống kê lô kép xổ số miền Bắcquay thử xsmnxổ số thần tàiQuay thử XSMTxổ số chiều nayxo so mien nam hom nayweb đánh lô đề trực tuyến uy tínKQXS hôm nayxsmb ngày hôm nayXSMT chủ nhậtxổ số Power 6/55KQXS A trúng roycao thủ chốt sốbảng xổ số đặc biệtsoi cầu 247 vipsoi cầu wap 666Soi cầu miễn phí 888 VIPSoi Cau Chuan MBđộc thủ desố miền bắcthần tài cho sốKết quả xổ số thần tàiXem trực tiếp xổ sốXIN SỐ THẦN TÀI THỔ ĐỊACầu lô số đẹplô đẹp vip 24hsoi cầu miễn phí 888xổ số kiến thiết chiều nayXSMN thứ 7 hàng tuầnKết quả Xổ số Hồ Chí Minhnhà cái xổ số Việt NamXổ Số Đại PhátXổ số mới nhất Hôm Nayso xo mb hom nayxxmb88quay thu mbXo so Minh ChinhXS Minh Ngọc trực tiếp hôm nayXSMN 88XSTDxs than taixổ số UY TIN NHẤTxs vietlott 88SOI CẦU SIÊU CHUẨNSoiCauVietlô đẹp hôm nay vipket qua so xo hom naykqxsmb 30 ngàydự đoán xổ số 3 miềnSoi cầu 3 càng chuẩn xácbạch thủ lônuoi lo chuanbắt lô chuẩn theo ngàykq xo-solô 3 càngnuôi lô đề siêu vipcầu Lô Xiên XSMBđề về bao nhiêuSoi cầu x3xổ số kiến thiết ngày hôm nayquay thử xsmttruc tiep kết quả sxmntrực tiếp miền bắckết quả xổ số chấm vnbảng xs đặc biệt năm 2023soi cau xsmbxổ số hà nội hôm naysxmtxsmt hôm nayxs truc tiep mbketqua xo so onlinekqxs onlinexo số hôm nayXS3MTin xs hôm nayxsmn thu2XSMN hom nayxổ số miền bắc trực tiếp hôm naySO XOxsmbsxmn hôm nay188betlink188 xo sosoi cầu vip 88lô tô việtsoi lô việtXS247xs ba miềnchốt lô đẹp nhất hôm naychốt số xsmbCHƠI LÔ TÔsoi cau mn hom naychốt lô chuẩndu doan sxmtdự đoán xổ số onlinerồng bạch kim chốt 3 càng miễn phí hôm naythống kê lô gan miền bắcdàn đề lôCầu Kèo Đặc Biệtchốt cầu may mắnkết quả xổ số miền bắc hômSoi cầu vàng 777thẻ bài onlinedu doan mn 888soi cầu miền nam vipsoi cầu mt vipdàn de hôm nay7 cao thủ chốt sốsoi cau mien phi 7777 cao thủ chốt số nức tiếng3 càng miền bắcrồng bạch kim 777dàn de bất bạion newsddxsmn188betw88w88789bettf88sin88suvipsunwintf88five8812betsv88vn88Top 10 nhà cái uy tínsky88iwinlucky88nhacaisin88oxbetm88vn88w88789betiwinf8betrio66rio66lucky88oxbetvn88188bet789betMay-88five88one88sin88bk88xbetoxbetMU88188BETSV88RIO66ONBET88188betM88M88SV88Jun-68Jun-88one88iwinv9betw388OXBETw388w388onbetonbetonbetonbet88onbet88onbet88onbet88onbetonbetonbetonbetqh88mu88Nhà cái uy tínpog79vp777vp777vipbetvipbetuk88uk88typhu88typhu88tk88tk88sm66sm66me88me888live8live8livesm66me88win798livesm66me88win79pog79pog79vp777vp777uk88uk88tk88tk88luck8luck8kingbet86kingbet86k188k188hr99hr99123b8xbetvnvipbetsv66zbettaisunwin-vntyphu88vn138vwinvwinvi68ee881xbetrio66zbetvn138i9betvipfi88clubcf68onbet88ee88typhu88onbetonbetkhuyenmai12bet-moblie12betmoblietaimienphi247vi68clupcf68clupvipbeti9betqh88onb123onbefsoi cầunổ hũbắn cáđá gàđá gàgame bàicasinosoi cầuxóc đĩagame bàigiải mã giấc mơbầu cuaslot gamecasinonổ hủdàn đềBắn cácasinodàn đềnổ hũtài xỉuslot gamecasinobắn cáđá gàgame bàithể thaogame bàisoi cầukqsssoi cầucờ tướngbắn cágame bàixóc đĩa开云体育开云体育开云体育乐鱼体育乐鱼体育乐鱼体育亚新体育亚新体育亚新体育爱游戏爱游戏爱游戏华体会华体会华体会IM体育IM体育沙巴体育沙巴体育PM体育PM体育AG尊龙AG尊龙AG尊龙AG百家乐AG百家乐AG百家乐AG真人AG真人<AG真人<皇冠体育皇冠体育PG电子PG电子万博体育万博体育KOK体育KOK体育欧宝体育江南体育江南体育江南体育半岛体育半岛体育半岛体育凯发娱乐凯发娱乐杏彩体育杏彩体育杏彩体育FB体育PM真人PM真人<米乐娱乐米乐娱乐天博体育天博体育开元棋牌开元棋牌j9九游会j9九游会开云体育AG百家乐AG百家乐AG真人AG真人爱游戏华体会华体会im体育kok体育开云体育开云体育开云体育乐鱼体育乐鱼体育欧宝体育ob体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育亚博体育开云体育开云体育棋牌棋牌沙巴体育买球平台新葡京娱乐开云体育mu88qh88