My Life as Oscar Guru: First 40 Years (1986-Present)
I have been asked to predict the Oscars ever since the publication of my book, And the Winner Is: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards, back in 1986.
My First Oscar Book
Oscar Book: Third, Expanded Edition
Best Picture
“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films) (foreign film, Indian)
“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) (foreign film, Spanish-speaking, French entry)
“Gladiator 2”
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal)
My Oscar Book (second version)
Analysis:
While 2024 was a banner year for independent and international films, it was not so rosy for mainstream Hollywood.
If my analysis is valid, only 2 of the 10 Best Picture n0miees would be studio products: Dune 2, Dens Villeneuve’s sequel to Dune, from Warner Bros. and Wicked, Joh Chu’s musical adaptation the long-running Broadway hit, from Universal.
Universal swept most of the major Oscars last year with the historical biopic, Oppenheimer, directed by Chris Nolan, which had swept kudos from all the guilds and many critics groups.
There is no such a clear front-runner this year, and my feeling is that the ultimate winner might be either Wicked or the indie historical epic, The Brutalist, directed by Brady Corbet.
Sadly (for me), Sean Baker’s dazzling sex satire black comedy, Anora, has lost its momentum after winning the Cannes Film Fest top honor, the Palme d’Or (back in May), and the Best Film from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA, of which I am a longtime member and former president).
