Oscars 2022: Who Will Win, Who Should Win (or How Would I Vote)

Who Would Win–Who Should Win (How Would I Vote as Oscar Historian?)

The likely winners (Oscar politics) versus the most deserving winners (critical acclaim) respectively, ahead of the 94th Oscar show this Sunday, March 27.

the Oscar telecast: Good or mediocre, long or short, make sure to watch. (It’s good for your health).

Clockwise: King Richard, Parallel Mothers, The — Clockwise: ‘King Richard,’ ‘Parallel Mothers,’ ‘The Power of the Dog,’ ‘West Side Story,’ ‘Drive My Car,’ ‘The Eyes of Tammy Faye’ and ‘CODA.’ CHIABELLA JAMES/WARNER BROS. ; IGLESIAS MAS/SONY PICTURES CLASSICS; KIRSTY GRIFFIN/NETFLIX; NIKO TAVERNISE/20TH CENTURY STUDIOS; SIDESHOW/JANUS FILM; : COURTESY OF SEARCHLIGHT PICTURES; COURTESY OF APPLE TV+.

Best Picture

Lazy loaded image — *CODA* COURTESY OF APPLE TV+

WILL WIN: CODA

In Oscar’s entire history, only 10 films have ever received more nominations than The Power of the Dog, this year’s leading movie, claiming 12 nominations, including 4 in the acting categories.

But it’s a polarizing film that may not play as well on the Academy’s preferential ballot as CODA, whose sincere story and terrific have charmed viewers, reducing many of them to tears.

Either film would become the third female-directed best picture and first ever from a streamer.

SHOULD WIN: Drive My Car

No film is more deserving than Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s masterwork about processing grief through art and unexpected human connection, in this case between a middle aged director and the younger lover of his late wife.

Based on a Murakami short story, enriched with strands of Chekhov, this is a gracefully multi-nuanced meditation that takes its time to develop its characters and ultimately gain its considerable emotional power.

My ranking of the 10 Best Picture nominees in terms of their overall artistic quality:

1. Drive My Car, A (*****)

2. The Power of the Dog, A (*****)

3. CODA, A- (****)

4. Dune, A- (****)

5. Tick Tick Boom, B+ (***1/2*)

6. King Richard, B+ (***1/2*)

7. West Side Story, B+ (***1/2*)

8. Belfast, B (***)

9. Nightmare Alley, B (***)

10. Don’t Look Up, C (*)

For the Record:

Don’t Look Up is one of the worst films in history to be ever nominated for the Best Picture.

CODA

If CODA wins, as I predict, it would be a major triumph for the American Independent Cinema in general, and the Sundance Film Festival, where it world premiered and won awards, in particular.

The movie is particularly thematically and emotionally effective in its representation of deaf storytelling.

The only way to encourage the making of more movies about marginalized people is to recognize them when they are so accomplished.