Oscar 2021: Best Picture–Predictions (My Life as Oscar Guru for 36 Years)

I have been an Oscar guru for the past 36 years

I have been asked to predict the Oscars ever since the publication of my book, And the Winner Is: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards, back in 1986.

In 2000, there was a major revision of the text, which includes analysis of trends and stats, and we changed its title to Oscar Fever: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards.


The book, now titled All About Oscar: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards, is in its 11th edition.



Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

Mank (Netflix)

Minari (A24)

Nomadland (Searchlight)

Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)

Promising Young Woman (Focus)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)


Strong Contenders:

The Father (Sony Classics)

The Invisible Man (Universal)

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

News of the World (Universal)

On the Rocks (A24/Apple)

One Night in Miami (Amazon)

Soul (Pixar)

Sound of Metal (Amazon)

Also in the Run:

Ammonite (Neon)

Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)

The Midnight Sky (Netflix)

Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)

Tenet (Warner Bros.)