Oscar 2010: Is the Game Really Over?

 Could there be a Major Upset in the Best Picture Category?


I believe I wrote the first “serious” Oscar book, back in 1986, published under the title, “And the Winner Is: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards.”

Twenty five years later, the book is still in print.   Halle Berry is on the cover of the latest edition of the book, now called: “All About Oscar: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards.” (I have always preferred the book’s subtitle).

Every five years or so, I have been revising the text, since it includes trend analysis, stats about age of winning, number of nominations, box-office impact, and so on.

Over the past decade or so, when the Internet began to take roots, I have become an Oscar Guru, polled by various surveys.

As a group, we are pretty accurate in our predictions, and I’d like to take this opportunity and report about the latest survey, published in MovieCityNews.

There is huge consensus among us regarding Best picture.  Here is the rank order (in points) of the ten films nominated for Best Picture:

The King’s Speech, 149 points

The Social Network, 133

True Grit, 114

The Fighter, 103

Black Swan, 92

Inception, 59

Toy Story 3, 55

The Kids Are All Right, 54

Winter’s Bone, 30

127 Hours, 29

Could there be a major upset?

Could Social Network, my personal favorite and according to most critics and groups in the country, Best Film of the Year, still win the top award?

Could the blockbuster Western True Grit emerge triumphant, sort o a compromising choice among Academy voters, who think that King’s Speech is too old-fashioned (and a bit stiff), and Social Network too modern, with it rapid-faire dialogue and central ambiguous (traditionally unheroic) figure?

What’s your opinion? We would love to get your own ranking of the ten Best Picture nominees?