Oscar 2010: Impact of Nominations on Box-Office

With its record of a dozen Academy Award nominations, “The King’s Speech” should see the biggest Oscar bounce at the box office.

Paramount’s “True Grit” and “The Fighter” also stand to benefit from their multiple Oscar bids, as will Fox Searchlight’s “Black Swan” and “127 Hours.”

“King’s Speech” will receive a major push from the Weinstein Co., which is adding 800 domestic play dates to boost the total to nearly 2,500 this weekend. The well-acted royal drama finished fourth last weekend with $7.9 million at 1,680, boosting its domestic take to $57.3 million after two months in release.

“King’s Speech” has a cumulative gross of nearly $50 million outside the U.S. thanks largely to $28 million in the U.K. after three weeks, and another $15 million in Australia.

The movie is opening soon in France, Germany and Italy, so the current worldwide cumulative of $106.8 million could double by Oscar time, February 27.

Searchlight is also expanding the release of “127 Hours” release from 69 to 890 theaters, after the Danny Boyle film, which stars James Franco (Oscar host this year), got six nominations, hoping Oscar buzz will persuade more filmgoers to see the real-life drama.

“Hours” has grossed only $11.3 domestically and $9.2 million overseas from the U.K. and two other markets, so the foreign side could see significant gains in coming weeks from Western European territories.

With 10 nominations, “True Grit” should continue its surprisingly strong domestic performance — now at $138 million in less than five weeks. “True Grit” finished fifth with $7.3 million at 3,464 last weekend. The Oscar buzz should help the Coen brothers’ Western perform well overseas, where it’s launching in its first international market on Wednesday in Australia, followed by Mexico on February.4 and Spain and the U.K. on February 11.

“Black Swan,” which has already over-performed at the domestic box office with $83.3 million in eight weeks, should stay in the top 10 for several more sessions thanks to its six Oscar nominations. The ballet thriller took in $5.9 million at 2,407 over the weekend.

“Black Swan” has high potential overseas, where it has just started its run with a combined $11.3 million in its first weeks in Australia, Germany and the U.K. Co-star Vincent Cassel has a huge following in France and Germany.

“The Fighter” grossed nearly $73 million domestically after seven weeks, including $4.5 million at 2,275 last weekend. The seven Oscar nomination should help provide additional punch in upcoming weeks, while the foreign run has just barely started with only $2.5 million, mostly from Australia.

“The Fighter,” handled by a variety of distribs internationally, launches February 4 in Spain and the U.K.

TWC’s “Blue Valentine” should see a boost thanks to Michelle Williams’ actress nomination. The drama has cumulative gross of $4.5 million in a month, including $877,815 at 242 sites last weekend.

A nomination for Nicole Kidman may not have much impact on future business for “Rabbit Hole.” Audiences have not embraced John Cameron Mitchell’s story of a mother whose child dies. To date, it has grossed only $1.3 million in a limited run so far for Lionsgate.

Also, Roadside launches “Biutiful” this weekend in 50 locations, taking advantage of the Best Actor nomination for Javier Bardem and the nomination for best foreign language film.

DVD Markets

Of the 10 best picture nominees, half are already released on DVD, so it’s unlikely that Warner’s “Inception,” Sony’s “The Social Network,” Focus’ “The Kids Are All Right” or Disney’s “Toy Story 3” would see a theatrical re-release.

 

Sundance Film Fest at the Oscars

Two best picture nominees started their careers at Sundance Film Fest last year: “The Kids Are All Right” and “Winter’s Bone,” which both performed well with $20.8 million and $6.3 million in respective domestic grosses.