Tom Cruise has built a career on jumping out of airplanes, scaling skyscrapers and performing all kinds of high-wire antics.
But he now faces his biggest and riskiest challenge: Getting moviegoers to see Digger, a rare big-budget, star-driven R-rated original comedy.
The Warner release, which opens October 2, represents the fall season’s biggest gamble.
There’s pressure on Digger not just to offset the studio’s terrible year at the box office (with bombs like Maggie Gyllenhaal’s punk rock The Bride! and DC’s Supergirl) but also to impress the new corporate ownership as Paramount Skydance hopes to close soon its acquisition of Warner. Discovery.
A movie of this size would need a debut near $40 million to justify its budget. Since exhibitors keep about half of ticket sales, and the studio spent another $100 million on marketing, Digger has a theatrical break-even point of roughly $350 million globally. A Warner spokesperson said that the film’s break-even point is $300 million.
“Kudos to Warner Bros. for taking a chance; Tom Cruise has earned that right,” says Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations. “But let’s be honest about where Cruise is today. He’s a franchise machine. Can audiences accept him as a transformative actor again, after he’s branded himself as the action hero?”
A bankable draw since the 980s, Cruise became synonymous with actioners through the enduring “Mission: Impossible” franchise, and then endeared himself to younger generations with 2022’s blockbuster Top Gun: Maverick.
But even Cruise knows that moviegoers have become pickier. His final two “Mission: Impossible” films — 2023’s “Dead Reckoning” and 2025’s “The Final Reckoning” — faced diminishing returns at the box office.
Cruise, an elusive star who doesn’t talk to press, has worked aggressively to sell Digger.
Amid his global promotional tour, he made rare podcast appearance on Travis and Jason Kelce’s “New Heights” and sat for his first cover story in two decades with GQ magazine.
“It takes herculean effort to get word-of-mouth going for black comedy,” says Bock. “Tom knows he has to go the extra mile with this film. His name alone isn’t going to sell it.”
Beyond Cruise’s star power, Warner co-chairs Pamela Abdy and Michael De Luca were willing to spend big on Digger because Iñárritu, too, has strong commercial track record. His 2015 film “The Revenant” generated $533 million globally and earned DiCaprio his long-awaited Best Actor Oscar.
In 2014, Birdman grossed $103 million against an $18 million budget and won Best Picture and Best Director Oscars.
My Oscar Book:
Iñárritu hasn’t released a film theatrically in more than a decade; his last movie, the polarizing drama “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” was set at Netflix.
Abdy and De Luca, known for taste and talent relations, faced similar scrutiny ahead of last year’s “One Battle After Another” — another expensive, auteur swing. That film opened to $22 million and climbed to $213 million globally. Although an impressive result for a nearly three-hour original comedic drama, those returns weren’t enough to get the movie out of the red.
One Battle lost $100 million theatrically. It did, however, prove valuable in other ways — namely, winning the Best Picture Oscar.
Moreover, Warner Bros. could withstand the major write-down because it was riding high on a massive year at the box office. The studio had fielded many profitable hits, including “Sinners,” “A Minecraft Movie,” “Weapons” and “Final Destination: Bloodlines.”
In 2025, the company had 7 movies that grossed $100 million domestically and commanded 21% of the North American box office.
But in 2026, the studio has yet to release a single film that grossed $100 million domestically, and commands just 6% of the domestic market.
That’s while the box office is enjoying its biggest year since the onset of COVID, fueled by the best summer season ever recorded.
Paramount isn’t having much better a year. Despite profitable releases like “Scary Movie” and “Scream,” Paramount ranks seventh among studios with just 5% of the domestic market share.
Warners is expected to rebound with December’s “Dune: Part III.” The third entry in Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi franchise, starring Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, is expected to be the highest-grossing installment in the series.
The studio has to mop up a lot of red ink. The Bride! will lose $100 million theatrically after collapsing with $24 million worldwide against a $90 million budget.
“Supergirl” tapped out with $126 million globally against a $170 million budget, and will lose $80 million. “The End of Oak Street,” a sci-fi adventure starring Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor, has grossed $121 million worldwide against an $85 million budget, putting estimated theatrical losses between $25 million and $40 million. “Practical Magic 2,” a legacy sequel that brought back Nicole Kidman and Sandra Bullock as witchy sisters, is running out of steam with $92 million globally against a $75 million budget; it could lose around $30 million to $40 million in its theatrical run. (A source close to “Practical Magic 2” disputes the loss and says the film could net a $5 million profit.)
Meanwhile the studio’s few 2026 wins were modest: Emerald Fennell and Margot Robbie’s “Wuthering Heights” adaptation, the studio’s highest-grossing release so far with $242 million worldwide, will generate $40 million in profits.
“Lee Cronin’s The Mummy” earned $90 million and will yield around $10 million for the studio.
“Mortal Kombat II” grossed $129 million against an $80 million budget and will result in gains of $10 million.
Analysts point out that no one is immune to occasional flops.
Studios try to craft a slate of films so the easy wins (sequels or reboots in reliable properties) can offset the creative gambles. Moreover, studios rely on franchises and bankable stars to drive value across the company, not just on the big screen.
Theatrical is just one component of profitability — though box office returns dictate the downstream terms for TV and Pay 1 deals. “Ancillary income — digital rental, sales, streaming and TV licensing — is essential part of the equation for every studio movie,” Gross says. “That is where a star like Tom Cruise pays back.”
