James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water is off to a strong start in China despite significant uncertainty surrounding the public health situation.

As of 12pm, local time on Friday, the film had earned $15.2 million (RMB106 million), including Thursday night previews, according to regional box-office consultancy Artisan Gateway.

The firm forecasts an opening haul of $119 million to $128 million (RMB830 million-RMB 890 million).

China’s largest ticketing app, Maoyan is projecting The Way of Water to conclude its local run with $360 million (RMB 2.51 billion).

This would make it Hollywood’s biggest movie in the country this year by far (more than double Jurassic World: Dominion‘s $157 million China haul) and the third-biggest U.S. title of all time in China. But even in the best of times, Maoyan’s full-run forecasts — a projection that leverages early sales rates, users’ ratings and the performance trajectories of past titles — tend to be subject to significant revision during the first days of release. And Avatar 2‘s earnings prospects are especially hard to gauge thanks to the uncertainties surrounding the widespread COVID outbreaks currently sweeping China’s major cities. Artisan Gateway is forecasting a wide range for Avatar 2’s career total — $315 million to $415 million (RMB 2.2 billion-RMB 2.9 billion) — reflecting the unpredictability of the moment.

Most testing requirements were eliminated and the proof-of-health QR code was scrapped. The sudden policy pivot came in response to growing social unrest over life under endless lockdowns, as well as rising infection rates in many Chinese cities, which some public health experts already believed had made “COVID zero” unsustainable.

China’s sudden freedoms of social movement would seem a boon to theatrical moviegoing. Approximately 75 percent of Chinese cinemas are in operation this weekend, compared to less than 50 percent as recently as two weeks ago, according to Artisan Gateway’s estimates. But a surge in COVID-19 infection rates has swiftly followed the relaxation, causing widespread worry and a pattern of voluntary self-isolation among the Chinese public. With testing mostly suspended, it’s now impossible to get reliable data on just how elevated China’s infection rates have become, but anecdotal evidence in Beijing — reports of strained hospitals, businesses hampered by large numbers of absent staff and mostly empty streets — suggests a potentially enormous outbreak underway.