Oscar 2018: PGA Nominees–Reliable Predictors of the Oscars?

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) has announced its Best Picture nominations today.  This year there are 11 film contenders due to a tie (first time in history).

The PGA is the only group to use the same preferential ballot as the Academy, and it has been largely a good predictor of the Best Picture Oscar.

The two notable exceptions occurred over the past several years, when “The Big Short” and “La La Land” won the PGA top award but failed to win the Oscar.  Last year, the surprise Oscar winner was “Moonlight,” not “La La Land.”

There are PGA nominees that have not been nominated for the Best Picture Oscar: “Deadpool,” “Ex Machina,” “Sicario,” “Straight Outta Compton,” “Foxcatcher,” “Gone Girl,” “Nightcrawler,” “Blue Jasmine,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Moonrise Kingdom,” “Skyfall,” “Bridesmaids,” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” “The Ides of March,” “The Town,” “Invictus,” and “Star Trek.”

And conversely, there are movies that were passed over by the PGA but nevertheless turned out best picture nominations, “Room,” “Selma,” “Philomena,” “Amour,” “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” “The Tree of Life,” “Winter’s Bone,” “The Blind Side,” and “A Serious Man.”