Oscar 2021: Best Picture–Predictions (As of December 12)

Over the past 36 years, I have been an Oscar guru, based on my book, And the Winner Is: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards, first published in 1986.

The book, considered to be the first serious chronicle at the Academy Awards, is now in its 11th edition, under the title All About Oscar: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners (in alphabetical order)

Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailerAFI*, CCA, HFPA, NBR

Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer)

King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, IFP

The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA

Tick, Tick… Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA

The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailerAFI, NBR

West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

Strong Contenders

A Hero (Amazon, Nov. 12, trailer) (Iran)

C’mon C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer

CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA

Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailerAFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR

Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailerNYFCC (Japan)

Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailerAFI, CCA, NBR

Summer of Soul (Searchlight, July 2, trailer) (documentary)

Also in the Run

Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer)

Cyrano (MGM/UA, Dec. 31, trailerHFPA

Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer) (Documentary, Animated)

The Harder They Fall (Netflix, Oct. 22, trailer)

Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer) (Spain)

Red Rocket (A24, Dec. 10, trailerNBR

Foreign and Indies

Cyrano (MGM/UA, Dec. 31, trailerHFPA

Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailerNYFCC

The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer) (Italy)

The Harder They Fall (Netflix, Oct. 22, trailer)

The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, IFP (Indie)

Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer) (Spain)

Red Rocket (A24, Dec. 10, trailerNBR (Indie)