Oscar 2018: Best Director–Predictions

 

I have divided the strong male supporting performances into three categories, each arranged alphabetically.

This is the 32nd year that I have been doing Oscar predictions. I began when my book, All About Oscar: The History and Politics of the Academy Awards, was first published, in 1986 (under the title And the Winner Is….).  The book is now in its 11th edition and can be purchased on Amazon and other venues.

Featuring on its cover Halle Berry, the first black woman to ever win the Best Actress Oscar, in 2001, the book (updated every sic year) is now in its 11th edition.

Best Director:

Three intriguing questions define the 2018 Best Director race?

  1. Will Christopher Nolan finally earn his Best Director Oscar nomination. Dunkirk, arguably his best studio movie to date, will be nominated for Best Picture, but there are only five spots in this category.
  2. Will the Best Director category include an African-America, in this case Jordan Peele, for the most talked about film of the year, Get Out.
  3. Will the race for Best Director include a woman, in this case Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird (not Sofia Coppola for “The Beguiled”), the year’s biggest discovery.

Frontrunners (in alphabetical order):

“Dunkirk” Christopher Nolan

“Get Out” Jordan Peele

“The Post” Steven Spielberg

“The Shape of Water” Guillermo del Toro

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Martin McDonagh

 

Contenders:

“Call Me by Your Name” Luca Guadagnino (Italian)

“The Florida Project” Sean Baker

“Lady Bird” Greta Gerwig

Analysis

If my predictions are valid, the Best Director Oscar category will be dominated by new and fresh faces.  With the exception of Spielberg (The Post) a multiple Oscar nominee and two-time Oscar winner, all the other have never been recognized by the Academy.

And if the group includes a woman (Gerwig) an African-American (Peele), and a truly original indie (Sean Baker), it will serve as proof that the nomination process is more more democratic than given credit to, and that there is always room for new and young talent.  In other words, the Directors Branch is no longer the “White Boys Club” it used to be.

 

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